University of Twente Student Theses
Balancing Forecast-based Action and prevention efforts for risk reduction : A case study of wind-induced building damage in the Philippines.
Vonk, D. (2021) Balancing Forecast-based Action and prevention efforts for risk reduction : A case study of wind-induced building damage in the Philippines.
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| Abstract: | With about 10 Tropical Cyclones making landfall annually, Tropical Cyclones are the natural hazard with the highest human and economic impact in the Philippines. With the heaviest predicted to become even more intense in the future because of climate change, effective spending of scarce budgets to anticipate, prepare for, and recover from these impacts is more important than ever. Risks can be managed at different phases of the Disaster Risk Management Cycle. Traditionally, humanitarian aid organizations focused on response and recovery programs, but since increasingly better forecast information became available, anticipating the impacts through Forecast-based Action (FbA) has gained a more prominent role. The more general question is how these Forecast-based Actions relate to more permanent measures that are part of long-term risk reduction and now adaptation to climate change. This study explores if a recently developed framework by Bischiniotis et al (2020) can be applied to compare the cost-effectiveness of forecast-based distribution of Shelter Strengthening Kits to a permanent upgrade: both being risk-reduction measures for wind-induced building damage. The use of this framework allows for exploring what the most cost-effective choice had been for this house had an actual choice been made in 2006. This study applied a couple of decision scenarios to a single house in the municipality of Santa Rita, the Philippines. Using historical observations and their forecasts between 2006 and 2020, and damage curves describing the original state of the house as well as the change in vulnerability under the interventions, this study explored the cost-effectiveness of the different interventions had an actual choice been made in 2006. This study aimed to deepen the existing framework by exploring how case-study-specific findings can be extrapolated to get an idea of after how many years the balance between Forecast-based Action, and prevention is found, and how certain variables affect this balance. In our baseline scenario, it was found that after 18.7 years the permanent upgrade scenario starts outweighing Forecast-based Action. A sensitivity analysis indicates that this balance is highly affected by the assumed costs, damage curves, and event samples. This study also notes that the choice would also be informed by additional benefits, including avoided indirect economic losses as well as non-monetary benefits, which were not incorporated in our analysis. This may include avoided productivity losses as well as intangible benefits such as the enhanced feeling of safety. This study proposes several directions for further deepening of this framework to address its weaknesses, as well as applications of the framework to utilize its strengths All in all, this study aims to help bridge the gap between planning for long-term climate adaptation and short-term preparedness action. |
| Item Type: | Essay (Master) |
| Faculty: | ITC: Faculty of Geo-information Science and Earth Observation |
| Programme: | Spatial Engineering MSc (60962) |
| Link to this item: | https://purl.utwente.nl/essays/88540 |
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